Tehran the spark to Mid-East tinderbox

Source: The Austrailian
James Hider, 29 Dec 2010
THE Middle East is poised to be the stage for dramatic moments in the coming year.
2011 could be the year Iran finally crosses the nuclear threshold and joins the atomic club, or triggers a war as the US and Israel try to stop it.

The regional power shift that a nuclear Iran would represent would have repercussions across a region rife with fault lines and hair triggers. In Lebanon, tensions are high because of a pending UN report expected to blame Iran's close military ally Hezbollah for the assassination of Rafiq Hariri, the former prime minister, and a close ally of the West and Saudi Arabia.
Some fear a violent response by Hezbollah if it is formally accused by the UN, with the possibility being raised that the powerful Shia militia, which blames Israel and the West for the 2005 bombing, could stage a coup or start a sectarian conflict like Lebanon's devastating civil war.
In Gaza, Iran's other protege, Hamas, risks a new war with Israel, two years after Operation Cast Lead, when Israel killed about 1400 Gazans to end Palestinian rocket fire into southern Israel and topple the Islamists who rule the territory. Israeli security officials have warned that Israel may launch an offensive if renewed rocket fire continues, although the Israeli chief of staff recently admitted that Hamas had acquired armour-piercing anti-tank missiles that were used to crippling effect by Hezbollah in the 2006 Lebanon war.
With Iran poised to achieve nuclear capability, the US and Israel may have to decide whether to launch an attack to stop it, one that could trigger a regional war as Iran mobilises Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as deploying its own long-range missiles against Israel and militias in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Few military analysts think such a high-risk strike would do more than delay Iran's nuclear program if the leadership were determined to make a bomb. The other option is to delay the building of a nuclear weapon by other means, mainly through crippling sanctions that are starting to inflict pain on Tehran and limit its ability to bankroll its allies. Other tactics, such as the use of the Stuxnet computer virus, have been effective. A report last week suggested it could have inflicted serious damage on 1000 Iranian uranium enrichment centrifuges.

Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant

Should this fail to halt the Iranian program, the result is set to be a widening of Iranian hegemony, especially in the Gulf, where the small oil-rich emirates will fall under the waxing influence of their powerful neighbour, or look to the US for serious military support. A series of leaked US State Department cables showed Arab countries across the region urging the US in secret to attack Iran before it becomes too powerful.

Another area where Iran is likely to flex its muscles is Iraq, from where 50,000 US troops are due to leave by year's end. It took Iraq's parliament almost a year to form a new government, a shaky line-up that Iran will be looking to exert influence over at a key transitional moment.
As they withdraw from Iraq, there is a danger of US forces becoming more involved in Yemen, the poorest country in the region, where al-Qa'ida is establishing a base. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict may face a new reality if the Palestinians go ahead with their plans to declare independence unilaterally after the latest US-mediated peace efforts collapsed.
With Israel refusing to stop its settlement activity in the West Bank, the Palestinians are mobilising international backing for a UN resolution declaring them an independent country.
Since Israel's independence is based on a similar UN declaration, the Jewish state would have a hard time challenging such a move. Salam Fayyad, the Palestinian Authority Prime Minister, has been working on a two-year plan to build a de facto Palestinian state, with its own security forces, economy and governance, a project often referred to as "Palestinian Zionism" and which is set to come to fruition in August.
Israel has said that if the Palestinians made a unilateral declaration of statehood, all agreements of the past would be considered void, which would create a dangerous diplomatic and legal vacuum in the tinderbox region.
To the south, Egypt will hold presidential elections later in the year. The key question is whether Hosni Mubarak, who has ruled for almost three decades but is believed to be facing health problems, will decide to run again, or step down in favour of his son or a member of his ruling elite.
The parliamentary elections last month were widely denounced as a rubber stamp for Mr Mubarak's ruling party. The same disregard for the democratic process is expected in September's elections for the top job.
Another US confidential cable released last month by WikiLeaks showed that the President of Tunisia, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, told David Welch, the US Assistant Secretary of State, in 2008 that the situation in Egypt was "explosive" and warned that the banned Muslim Brotherhood could take over.